* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 08/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 47 49 49 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 47 49 49 48 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 35 35 35 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 10 11 9 10 11 21 15 15 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 -6 -3 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 72 78 90 97 71 82 84 77 74 81 79 72 67 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 156 150 143 138 133 129 128 128 123 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 11 8 10 8 8 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 72 75 69 69 70 71 67 65 63 61 56 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -17 -26 -31 -21 -19 1 9 29 32 37 28 11 200 MB DIV 38 27 17 17 21 3 42 4 36 2 3 -7 -1 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 7 2 4 1 3 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 204 213 222 236 256 271 334 423 515 594 588 624 674 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.1 101.0 102.0 103.0 104.8 106.5 108.1 109.4 110.8 112.4 114.0 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 45 40 30 13 9 10 9 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 23. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 08/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 08/04/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##