* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/04/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 53 56 59 61 60 59 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 51 52 54 58 60 59 58 57 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 52 55 60 66 71 73 73 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 12 19 13 12 12 16 9 13 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 294 290 281 274 287 353 351 48 46 55 37 30 359 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.2 28.6 27.7 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 157 156 158 165 165 155 148 136 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 148 152 148 145 148 147 137 133 122 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 13 11 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 64 62 62 60 61 61 64 62 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 28 29 29 13 -16 -47 -54 -60 -52 -28 28 76 200 MB DIV 61 45 64 67 17 4 -6 6 12 18 11 33 5 700-850 TADV 7 10 13 6 -1 1 -7 -2 -2 2 11 30 2 LAND (KM) 69 40 33 44 30 158 263 228 193 400 384 559 794 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.8 20.9 22.7 24.3 25.9 27.7 29.9 32.5 34.2 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.2 73.1 74.0 74.9 76.2 77.1 77.9 78.3 76.8 73.4 70.0 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 13 14 12 10 9 9 10 16 18 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 87 90 20 81 46 47 83 29 34 27 10 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/04/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/04/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/04/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)