* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/04/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 90 81 72 57 44 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 98 90 81 72 57 44 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 97 88 80 72 60 50 42 35 30 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 10 12 8 6 0 7 13 20 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 0 -1 -2 -1 3 1 0 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 92 48 41 54 75 57 115 273 206 235 237 244 238 SST (C) 26.2 25.3 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.4 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 117 109 105 101 97 90 86 83 81 82 82 83 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 72 68 68 68 67 65 62 59 56 54 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 28 27 25 23 21 18 17 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 37 41 38 33 19 7 -4 2 0 8 -1 8 200 MB DIV -27 -29 -5 18 24 20 33 -12 -5 2 -1 20 -11 700-850 TADV -19 -25 -22 -18 -16 -6 -1 0 0 2 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1035 1082 1125 1182 1247 1394 1520 1637 1747 1843 1938 1998 2042 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.4 119.6 120.8 121.9 124.4 126.7 128.6 130.2 131.5 132.8 134.0 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -18. -31. -43. -53. -62. -68. -73. -76. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -24. -26. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -24. -33. -48. -61. -74. -85. -97.-110.-120.-130. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##