* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 54 59 60 61 60 61 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 53 58 59 60 59 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 52 55 59 64 68 70 70 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 11 19 24 14 19 9 18 12 10 1 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 1 1 -2 0 1 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 296 296 270 284 323 356 10 23 36 26 46 307 303 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.3 28.8 28.4 27.4 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 155 157 158 163 166 157 149 145 132 129 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 150 153 152 152 149 138 130 129 120 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 13 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 67 63 65 61 66 66 66 52 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 40 17 -19 -28 -71 -46 -71 -38 -14 11 31 200 MB DIV 42 53 78 39 4 9 -1 13 11 25 9 -3 -5 700-850 TADV 10 11 8 -2 1 1 -10 2 -8 17 5 9 -6 LAND (KM) 54 22 36 15 47 208 231 183 277 363 399 763 825 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.7 20.0 21.2 23.5 25.6 27.4 29.3 31.3 33.4 35.1 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.5 73.3 74.3 75.2 76.7 77.9 78.3 77.9 75.8 72.3 67.5 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 15 14 13 10 9 11 16 20 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 86 94 40 79 49 77 22 22 33 31 12 12 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 14. 15. 16. 15. 16. 14. 14. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/04/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/04/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)