* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 87 74 67 50 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 96 87 74 67 50 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 96 87 78 71 58 48 40 33 27 23 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 13 13 9 12 7 6 8 17 21 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 3 -3 0 -1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 51 81 83 64 94 134 186 232 242 253 237 265 SST (C) 25.5 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.7 23.3 22.8 22.5 22.4 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 119 112 107 104 100 96 90 86 85 83 83 83 83 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 69 71 69 71 69 64 63 62 56 54 50 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 27 27 23 25 22 18 17 15 13 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 31 28 18 10 -3 3 2 0 -7 -12 -1 200 MB DIV -35 -4 33 42 39 39 18 5 -11 -8 0 6 -8 700-850 TADV -27 -18 -16 -13 -11 -1 -2 2 0 2 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1094 1132 1182 1254 1335 1458 1578 1697 1821 1918 1979 2022 2003 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.5 120.6 121.9 123.1 125.4 127.5 129.3 130.9 132.2 133.3 134.5 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -14. -20. -33. -45. -55. -63. -69. -73. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -5. -9. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -31. -38. -55. -71. -84. -95.-107.-118.-127.-136. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 57 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##