* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972011 08/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 36 37 36 34 32 29 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 36 37 36 34 32 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 29 27 24 22 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 9 12 18 19 25 24 19 15 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 2 0 -2 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 102 77 67 61 63 70 60 68 76 82 106 134 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.3 23.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 153 147 142 136 130 124 121 120 115 100 89 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 10 10 11 8 8 6 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 68 68 65 67 63 65 59 60 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -10 -2 -9 7 15 31 28 23 2 -2 -12 200 MB DIV 16 13 14 15 -7 41 -5 34 -12 2 -27 -10 -21 700-850 TADV 9 7 3 3 6 1 4 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 180 178 192 177 197 251 338 434 470 460 492 522 557 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.7 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.5 106.2 107.8 109.2 110.6 112.0 113.4 114.8 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 31 28 19 13 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972011 INVEST 08/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972011 INVEST 08/04/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##