* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/04/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 84 72 63 55 42 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 84 72 63 55 42 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 86 78 71 66 55 47 41 35 30 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 13 6 4 5 3 5 10 14 17 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 5 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 33 72 81 91 61 72 112 199 236 228 230 243 257 SST (C) 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.5 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 106 104 101 97 91 86 83 83 84 85 87 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 72 68 72 68 66 64 60 58 54 50 42 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 28 24 26 24 22 19 18 16 13 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 22 16 17 6 1 17 19 15 -2 9 -6 200 MB DIV -14 8 1 10 23 23 -13 15 1 17 4 -3 -3 700-850 TADV -22 -19 -18 -14 -11 -3 0 0 3 1 2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1144 1205 1275 1354 1429 1557 1678 1797 1903 1994 2061 2008 1884 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 20.9 20.8 21.0 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.7 121.8 123.1 124.3 126.6 128.7 130.5 132.1 133.4 134.3 135.6 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 7 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -28. -37. -46. -54. -60. -63. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -24. -27. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -6. -4. -1. 2. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -23. -32. -40. -53. -63. -73. -81. -90. -98.-107.-117. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/04/11 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##