* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 32 35 41 43 46 46 49 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 32 35 41 43 46 46 49 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 20 24 15 11 15 13 21 20 26 23 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 294 329 350 351 2 44 46 50 37 64 46 51 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 155 156 160 165 168 166 164 162 157 150 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 144 143 145 147 146 141 138 138 134 129 123 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 12 14 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 63 65 57 60 52 57 54 51 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 9 11 10 11 10 10 8 10 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -16 -35 -27 -39 -71 -53 -78 -40 -54 -37 -32 -16 200 MB DIV 55 20 14 20 22 4 8 -9 4 4 17 10 6 700-850 TADV 7 9 12 9 3 0 -1 -4 3 3 8 0 8 LAND (KM) 11 26 49 78 119 156 206 132 139 195 287 385 542 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.9 27.8 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.1 75.0 75.7 76.4 77.7 78.5 79.0 78.8 78.2 77.2 76.3 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 7 6 3 3 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 76 63 57 76 63 50 2 86 26 38 19 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 18. 21. 21. 24. 27. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/05/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)