* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 70 62 54 48 36 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 70 62 54 48 36 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 72 65 60 55 47 41 35 29 24 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 9 5 4 6 9 15 19 22 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -2 2 1 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 47 65 60 49 62 140 184 229 236 233 226 261 264 SST (C) 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.1 22.8 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 109 106 104 103 100 93 90 85 84 84 85 86 89 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 67 71 69 70 68 64 64 58 54 48 40 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 24 26 24 23 20 17 17 14 12 10 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 3 2 -1 -14 0 13 10 7 0 -4 -9 200 MB DIV 6 4 7 17 19 11 0 -2 8 9 10 0 -21 700-850 TADV -20 -22 -20 -17 -5 -1 2 1 0 2 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1206 1279 1360 1432 1483 1606 1734 1845 1951 2022 2070 1936 1792 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.3 127.5 129.5 131.1 132.5 133.7 135.0 136.3 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -28. -35. -42. -46. -48. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -14. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -26. -32. -44. -55. -64. -75. -84. -95.-104.-113. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##