* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/05/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 49 44 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 56 49 44 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 56 50 46 42 36 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 7 5 4 7 10 15 20 26 34 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 1 4 1 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 66 64 51 102 160 167 216 244 235 252 251 260 261 SST (C) 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.5 23.0 22.6 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 104 103 101 98 92 88 85 84 86 88 89 90 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 68 71 70 71 68 64 61 56 54 48 42 35 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 21 22 21 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 4 1 -2 -3 21 17 18 8 15 2 3 200 MB DIV 12 24 27 34 32 0 9 7 25 4 -9 -7 -1 700-850 TADV -15 -18 -15 -3 1 -1 1 4 2 3 0 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1267 1348 1433 1487 1549 1675 1818 1934 2027 2070 1894 1719 1536 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.9 124.1 125.3 126.4 128.5 130.6 132.2 133.5 135.0 136.7 138.4 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -25. -30. -33. -34. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -21. -27. -38. -47. -57. -66. -75. -84. -93.-100. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##