* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/05/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 41 35 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 47 41 35 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 47 41 37 33 28 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 8 6 7 4 7 13 20 25 34 40 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -3 -3 -5 0 0 3 3 5 2 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 61 86 105 134 150 152 215 233 244 243 243 247 268 SST (C) 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 99 95 93 90 86 86 86 87 88 88 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 68 66 64 64 56 51 42 34 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 22 20 19 16 14 13 11 8 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 3 0 -4 13 20 13 11 5 8 -7 -4 200 MB DIV 26 26 43 31 22 12 -1 18 20 8 -3 -11 10 700-850 TADV -20 -12 -4 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1346 1419 1474 1534 1598 1723 1869 1993 2083 1956 1793 1633 1496 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.4 127.4 129.3 131.3 132.9 134.5 136.1 137.7 139.3 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. -25. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -21. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -26. -37. -47. -56. -66. -74. -84. -93. -99. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/05/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##