* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/05/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 42 46 50 51 46 36 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 42 46 50 51 46 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 44 46 49 54 59 58 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 15 16 14 18 12 6 20 30 49 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 3 3 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 4 -7 SHEAR DIR 303 3 28 54 88 48 52 57 170 254 247 264 270 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.1 27.8 26.3 21.7 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 170 170 169 161 147 145 136 128 136 119 88 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 155 153 145 127 128 121 112 117 102 78 71 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.2 -49.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 13 11 14 13 13 10 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 56 57 58 60 61 57 51 46 52 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -28 -55 -71 -58 -94 -64 -29 44 105 118 79 54 200 MB DIV 5 9 1 -2 7 -2 18 7 26 -11 16 6 -8 700-850 TADV 3 1 -4 1 1 -4 0 -2 22 -13 -11 5 17 LAND (KM) 94 185 179 127 101 232 417 407 491 585 517 433 378 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.8 26.0 27.2 29.5 30.5 32.2 34.7 36.9 38.9 41.0 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.4 78.7 78.9 79.1 78.5 76.2 73.4 70.6 67.6 64.5 61.3 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 11 12 12 10 13 16 17 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 69 15 40 7 59 38 33 15 18 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 16. 20. 21. 16. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/05/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/05/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/05/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)