* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052011 08/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 31 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 31 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 32 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 9 10 10 17 20 30 43 44 58 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -4 -3 1 5 2 -4 -1 -9 N/A SHEAR DIR 66 128 143 167 187 197 208 224 245 255 250 269 N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.7 23.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 96 93 92 90 87 86 86 88 88 88 91 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 64 64 64 59 51 45 36 28 26 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 18 18 17 14 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -13 -1 9 25 25 28 25 19 7 10 N/A 200 MB DIV 32 31 38 8 18 15 15 21 2 -5 -13 -13 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 0 2 -1 1 1 2 -8 -2 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 1490 1541 1598 1671 1749 1896 2030 2060 1884 1702 1555 1393 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.4 127.4 128.5 129.6 131.6 133.3 135.1 136.8 138.6 140.1 141.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -17. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -19. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -30. -41. -50. -60. -70. -81. -88. -90. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052011 EUGENE 08/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052011 EUGENE 08/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##