* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 49 53 54 55 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 49 53 54 55 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 42 46 50 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 11 13 14 12 13 5 9 15 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 353 26 65 46 43 51 40 62 357 342 322 312 314 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 162 155 151 145 135 126 125 122 118 114 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 145 137 132 129 119 112 111 109 104 100 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 12 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 57 54 58 59 57 60 59 58 55 58 60 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 9 9 10 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -91 -66 -48 -77 -55 -28 8 33 49 54 62 24 200 MB DIV 13 3 18 29 7 6 2 35 -5 27 10 9 -9 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -6 -3 21 28 8 32 18 24 10 LAND (KM) 263 221 202 224 274 411 419 646 963 1075 1206 1204 1165 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 14 16 17 18 19 18 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 6 52 39 34 33 13 8 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 23. 24. 25. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/06/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)