* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 33 36 39 43 46 45 39 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 33 36 39 43 46 45 39 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 33 38 41 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 21 21 12 8 15 20 41 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 3 4 1 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 57 49 39 62 59 118 233 267 271 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.7 26.9 27.3 27.1 25.0 22.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 160 154 150 145 135 125 130 128 108 90 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 136 133 130 119 110 113 110 94 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -49.7 -49.9 -50.3 -50.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 12 9 4 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 55 60 57 57 52 47 48 46 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -54 -77 -81 -52 -33 37 110 144 110 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 24 -8 -12 14 13 36 0 21 -9 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 -1 -10 10 38 -10 1 -3 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 217 227 265 382 490 464 556 725 671 619 540 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 27.0 27.9 28.9 29.9 31.9 33.8 35.7 37.6 39.5 41.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.8 77.6 76.7 75.8 72.9 70.2 67.1 63.8 60.3 56.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 16 15 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 7 41 24 28 20 11 20 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 20. 14. 13. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/06/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)