* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/07/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 37 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 37 37 38 37 33 27 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 37 39 39 37 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 23 15 15 6 21 34 32 39 42 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 3 -2 0 0 -5 0 -1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 55 44 41 53 45 60 15 299 302 286 274 261 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.3 24.2 22.2 19.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 148 143 140 131 124 116 112 103 91 81 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 132 127 128 124 116 106 101 92 81 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -50.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 13 14 12 8 5 3 2 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 58 57 63 64 63 58 58 61 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -77 -80 -53 -56 -20 38 94 110 89 61 34 N/A 200 MB DIV 24 -12 -12 9 0 20 17 35 28 18 13 5 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -14 -3 -11 30 38 80 73 48 -12 N/A LAND (KM) 188 302 416 514 496 731 1010 1037 911 934 1096 1324 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.2 29.2 30.1 31.0 32.7 34.9 36.8 38.8 40.8 43.0 45.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.2 77.3 76.4 75.1 73.7 68.7 61.7 55.8 50.1 44.8 40.2 35.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 19 27 28 25 24 22 20 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 34 24 27 26 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 3. -3. -10. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/07/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)