* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 36 36 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 36 36 33 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 26 20 20 18 16 12 17 22 8 3 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 0 0 -1 -4 -5 0 4 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 38 38 47 38 33 58 339 330 348 8 10 286 N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.8 25.6 24.4 23.6 21.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 141 138 132 124 117 115 104 99 87 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 129 129 127 118 108 103 93 87 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 14 14 13 13 9 7 5 5 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 54 55 59 57 53 52 60 63 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -81 -62 -60 -64 -36 18 67 31 -27 -73 -61 N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -5 2 5 -3 30 -1 26 17 21 8 3 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -22 -13 -8 6 39 43 30 14 17 7 N/A LAND (KM) 251 382 503 540 578 975 1182 1195 1170 1304 1489 1673 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.9 29.7 30.6 31.4 32.9 34.5 36.0 37.7 39.5 41.5 43.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.8 76.7 75.6 73.7 71.8 65.8 58.2 51.6 45.7 40.4 35.9 31.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 16 18 22 29 30 26 24 21 19 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 24 24 25 18 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)