* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 29 29 29 31 29 25 19 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 29 29 29 31 29 25 19 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 29 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 20 17 15 16 4 16 27 24 25 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 -6 0 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 42 36 39 44 337 293 282 281 289 302 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.0 23.3 20.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 139 133 128 124 118 112 101 97 84 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 126 122 119 114 106 99 89 85 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 12 12 10 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 58 61 63 64 52 50 49 44 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -58 -56 -48 -24 27 75 100 72 41 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -7 4 7 13 8 29 11 -9 -28 -37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -13 -2 6 2 31 32 42 42 45 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 455 434 518 658 975 995 922 823 871 1039 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.2 34.9 36.6 38.4 40.2 42.2 44.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.6 75.3 74.0 71.7 69.3 63.2 57.9 52.9 48.2 44.1 40.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 18 22 24 25 23 21 19 19 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 23 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 15 CX,CY: 8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -12. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)