* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 23 28 32 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 23 28 32 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 17 19 12 23 27 29 29 37 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -1 0 -2 -5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 38 36 41 47 287 281 284 275 267 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.6 23.9 21.8 18.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 133 128 127 121 114 106 100 89 79 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 123 119 119 112 102 94 88 79 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 13 11 12 7 4 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 62 62 63 61 57 56 53 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 5 4 5 11 13 10 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -56 -35 -12 4 50 88 78 48 15 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 1 4 12 38 23 31 9 22 -1 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 11 5 7 21 18 25 31 47 38 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 465 481 547 732 933 987 988 876 953 1131 1341 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.3 34.2 36.0 37.8 39.6 41.5 43.5 45.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 73.2 71.2 68.4 65.6 59.3 53.5 48.4 43.6 39.4 35.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 22 25 26 26 23 21 19 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 23 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 5. 1. -4. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 3. 7. 4. -1. -8. -14. -15. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)