* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 44 52 59 64 66 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 44 52 59 64 66 70 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 58 65 71 76 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 10 7 3 6 6 6 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 4 2 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 145 117 74 71 112 126 163 165 198 187 137 169 157 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 122 121 123 122 120 117 119 123 130 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 119 119 118 121 120 118 116 119 123 130 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 66 64 60 64 61 61 61 55 53 49 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 60 65 67 81 91 99 106 116 100 101 74 63 48 200 MB DIV 12 8 14 34 48 42 24 17 5 7 -4 14 35 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -7 -5 -3 -3 -6 3 -2 1 11 13 LAND (KM) 463 545 627 708 797 1026 1306 1615 1966 1779 1554 1360 1257 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.6 24.6 26.9 29.6 32.5 35.8 39.3 42.9 46.3 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 17 17 17 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 4 14 22 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 19. 27. 34. 39. 41. 45. 47. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED