* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 36 34 35 34 30 24 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 36 34 35 34 30 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 20 18 17 13 13 9 5 17 19 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 337 344 341 320 323 309 359 356 256 273 288 304 324 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.7 24.9 24.0 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 120 120 120 115 111 105 99 100 98 95 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 104 103 102 97 94 89 85 86 84 81 79 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 62 60 54 53 53 57 54 56 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 46 61 60 55 59 41 -2 -20 -28 -39 -25 -24 -20 200 MB DIV 20 26 27 20 8 -12 -6 13 7 -4 -25 -27 -16 700-850 TADV 40 35 34 21 20 6 15 14 16 9 0 -2 2 LAND (KM) 1406 1414 1424 1398 1384 1280 1169 1154 1294 1589 1803 1619 1499 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.6 35.1 36.8 38.7 40.4 41.6 41.7 40.8 39.6 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 51.9 50.0 48.6 47.1 45.2 43.8 41.7 38.5 34.4 30.7 28.0 26.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 16 14 13 12 11 11 12 14 15 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 23 CX,CY: 23/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 10. 9. 5. -1. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/09/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)