* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL052011 08/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 27 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 17 15 13 19 15 11 6 6 6 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 339 335 320 305 297 334 340 339 304 338 1 50 41 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 118 117 115 111 107 101 104 102 100 99 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 101 99 98 93 91 87 89 88 85 84 85 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 55 52 52 50 51 48 48 45 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 7 6 8 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 65 81 65 17 -4 -25 -46 -68 -67 -62 -37 200 MB DIV 28 19 15 14 4 -6 20 -10 -5 -22 -10 -10 18 700-850 TADV 46 35 18 21 16 17 18 21 -2 -15 -10 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1346 1323 1317 1262 1218 1122 1088 1227 1529 1861 1868 1909 1960 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.0 35.3 36.1 36.9 38.6 40.2 41.2 40.9 39.6 37.8 36.3 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 50.6 48.8 47.7 46.5 44.9 43.0 39.8 35.8 32.3 30.6 30.7 31.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 10 12 14 15 13 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 19 CX,CY: 19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. -4. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052011 EMILY 08/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052011 EMILY 08/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052011 EMILY 08/09/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)