* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 50 56 64 72 74 75 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 50 56 64 72 74 75 74 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 60 70 78 81 80 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 6 9 5 6 3 9 17 20 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 1 0 -1 -4 0 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 75 81 96 100 94 79 119 304 341 327 327 330 321 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 120 119 119 120 124 129 134 136 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 118 117 117 117 117 122 127 132 132 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 72 73 72 67 59 52 44 42 45 44 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 87 99 102 98 103 91 76 56 20 -4 -31 -53 200 MB DIV 5 14 49 76 86 46 16 31 11 13 16 8 10 700-850 TADV -5 -2 1 -1 -4 2 12 5 -2 14 -2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1223 1314 1407 1527 1650 1944 1887 1725 1602 1528 1381 1144 917 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.6 20.8 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.5 30.4 31.6 32.8 35.6 38.7 41.9 45.2 48.6 51.9 55.1 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 3 2 4 17 23 35 35 49 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 25. 32. 39. 47. 49. 50. 49. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)