* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 58 60 59 56 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 58 60 59 56 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 58 59 55 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 14 9 4 11 17 26 34 35 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 0 2 0 -3 -3 -2 0 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 59 70 70 67 72 46 337 312 302 299 302 316 327 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 121 120 121 124 129 134 137 140 141 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 120 119 118 119 123 128 133 134 135 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 69 66 56 50 46 42 45 45 47 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 73 70 83 92 105 84 65 26 4 -24 -55 -79 200 MB DIV 72 97 75 50 43 27 6 14 43 54 33 -5 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -4 -1 4 -6 -5 -1 8 3 14 0 LAND (KM) 1452 1564 1679 1812 1948 1866 1703 1569 1524 1374 1118 866 715 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.4 19.7 21.0 22.2 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 31.9 33.0 34.3 35.6 38.4 41.7 45.1 48.7 52.1 55.4 58.5 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 13 14 16 17 18 18 17 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 5 4 4 16 25 36 35 50 39 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 33. 35. 34. 31. 30. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)