* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 39 49 59 64 68 73 84 92 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 39 49 59 64 68 73 84 92 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 38 44 51 59 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 13 12 8 12 6 8 7 9 7 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 8 16 17 16 11 8 7 0 7 6 SHEAR DIR 74 63 71 50 54 55 68 73 118 156 122 106 117 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 136 136 136 129 125 127 125 130 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 143 142 141 139 131 127 128 127 132 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.4 -54.1 -53.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 65 65 65 65 65 56 54 48 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 15 16 14 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 -2 4 7 30 39 44 51 65 64 82 76 200 MB DIV 39 35 32 51 86 98 98 0 -42 -50 -14 23 29 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -1 -6 -6 -4 -4 3 1 -4 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 142 243 312 428 576 880 1160 1499 1854 1750 1469 1265 1101 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 15.7 17.2 18.7 20.3 21.9 24.9 27.9 31.2 34.6 38.0 41.4 44.6 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 16 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 20 20 15 11 10 9 7 9 11 18 23 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 29. 39. 44. 48. 53. 64. 72. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED