* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 46 52 54 53 53 54 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 46 52 54 53 53 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 49 52 52 49 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 9 11 2 8 19 24 37 30 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 2 1 1 0 0 4 0 2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 86 79 58 75 48 298 289 288 287 294 318 326 337 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 120 120 124 129 136 138 142 143 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 121 120 119 119 125 130 136 137 139 138 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 700-500 MB RH 76 72 70 65 60 50 44 39 41 45 47 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 77 92 104 92 84 44 20 -5 -23 -49 -53 200 MB DIV 82 64 37 29 18 9 12 31 36 38 14 2 21 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 0 -1 5 1 10 -7 4 -6 0 -12 LAND (KM) 1518 1646 1779 1941 1967 1754 1584 1499 1313 1017 746 589 641 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.6 21.8 23.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.7 34.0 35.6 37.1 40.7 44.7 48.8 52.6 56.3 59.6 63.0 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 14 15 16 17 19 20 19 19 17 16 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 3 3 12 25 37 41 52 43 53 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 29. 28. 28. 29. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/11/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)