* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 43 48 51 52 55 59 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 43 48 51 52 55 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 38 41 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 11 17 12 9 6 6 15 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 10 14 11 7 13 14 8 4 9 9 8 SHEAR DIR 57 57 52 34 34 70 15 323 268 271 278 244 252 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 135 135 135 131 122 122 122 124 129 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 140 139 138 133 122 123 123 125 129 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 63 59 66 62 58 57 53 51 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 9 16 18 36 34 33 52 47 57 63 54 200 MB DIV 38 32 47 92 86 64 55 -32 -24 -1 11 59 34 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -8 -13 0 -8 1 4 3 -2 7 -6 LAND (KM) 239 308 446 594 754 1031 1339 1696 1913 1647 1411 1209 1090 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 17.3 19.0 20.6 22.2 23.7 26.7 29.8 33.2 36.7 40.2 43.6 46.8 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 14 10 13 10 4 4 5 12 17 30 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 35. 39. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/11/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED