* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 52 59 61 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 52 59 61 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 46 54 59 59 57 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 10 11 7 13 14 29 25 30 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 0 -3 2 -2 2 1 5 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 93 61 66 81 56 10 318 311 297 314 300 312 307 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 120 120 121 125 130 136 138 141 143 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 118 118 120 125 130 136 136 136 135 138 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 71 69 64 61 58 48 41 36 39 42 43 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 75 81 99 103 84 70 25 -6 -45 -62 -84 -117 200 MB DIV 58 24 41 28 27 24 18 31 8 10 9 13 -5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 1 0 -3 -2 -1 13 -4 16 17 14 LAND (KM) 1667 1785 1907 1964 1884 1691 1539 1497 1338 1070 855 799 884 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 18.3 19.8 21.4 22.9 24.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.0 35.2 36.6 38.0 41.5 45.3 49.1 52.7 56.0 59.1 61.9 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 16 18 19 19 18 17 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 3 4 14 25 38 39 49 37 43 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 27. 34. 36. 35. 34. 34. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/11/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)