* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 43 51 59 68 76 85 94 95 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 43 51 59 68 76 85 94 95 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 33 40 51 65 79 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 14 22 19 20 18 10 4 5 4 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 11 6 3 4 4 4 6 2 6 7 1 SHEAR DIR 68 66 42 54 48 43 60 58 47 29 346 350 300 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 136 136 130 132 130 127 131 134 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 138 138 132 135 132 129 132 135 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.8 -54.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 66 63 63 64 60 57 57 53 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 15 16 18 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 10 26 32 36 32 31 28 38 50 60 65 69 59 200 MB DIV 37 51 96 110 95 76 18 -37 -15 -3 19 40 23 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -11 -13 -13 -14 -5 0 1 0 -4 -2 3 LAND (KM) 508 652 804 938 1072 1321 1624 1756 1671 1414 1225 1088 1065 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.5 24.0 25.3 26.6 29.2 32.2 35.3 38.6 41.8 44.8 47.6 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 12 11 13 13 13 13 19 26 39 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 23. 31. 39. 48. 56. 65. 74. 75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/11/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED