* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 53 59 60 59 57 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 53 59 60 59 57 57 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 54 57 56 53 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 11 4 8 13 18 32 29 33 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 0 0 0 2 4 7 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 61 66 71 56 59 338 332 292 308 302 310 311 321 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 121 122 127 132 137 140 141 147 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 120 119 121 128 133 137 137 134 137 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 69 64 63 59 52 45 35 36 39 43 48 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 81 96 100 93 82 55 13 -26 -60 -80 -106 -134 200 MB DIV 25 41 30 27 24 22 24 22 6 15 17 6 28 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 6 3 21 16 7 LAND (KM) 1789 1911 1936 1855 1763 1595 1481 1404 1219 996 906 985 1146 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 16.0 17.2 18.7 20.5 22.6 24.5 26.6 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.3 36.6 38.1 39.6 43.2 47.0 50.8 54.3 57.3 60.0 62.1 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 19 19 19 18 17 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 5 8 19 31 45 43 40 35 31 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 35. 34. 32. 32. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/11/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)