* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 55 63 70 77 83 86 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 55 63 70 77 83 86 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 48 57 69 80 86 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 21 19 20 20 13 3 5 2 9 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 6 6 2 3 4 7 3 7 4 1 4 SHEAR DIR 59 37 52 47 46 52 65 50 7 341 297 264 292 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 137 137 134 133 133 128 128 129 133 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 144 142 140 137 135 136 129 129 129 133 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 66 63 59 57 55 55 52 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 14 14 15 15 18 20 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 30 29 34 30 30 46 55 67 75 69 57 200 MB DIV 52 93 103 94 87 41 -21 -32 -12 20 35 44 51 700-850 TADV 0 -8 -13 -13 -7 -11 -2 0 1 0 3 2 13 LAND (KM) 554 717 887 1038 1178 1467 1772 1732 1596 1409 1256 1185 1179 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 21.5 23.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 30.6 33.6 36.5 39.6 42.5 45.5 48.2 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 13 11 14 14 14 13 14 17 25 33 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 30. 38. 45. 52. 58. 61. 64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/11/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED