* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 52 59 61 60 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 52 59 61 60 58 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 53 58 58 56 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 5 6 11 15 22 25 31 34 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 0 -5 -3 0 3 -2 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 69 73 75 75 39 349 360 314 317 301 313 310 306 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 122 123 128 134 138 141 142 147 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 120 121 123 128 135 137 137 135 137 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 54 49 42 37 40 40 44 48 49 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 93 98 99 92 81 47 17 -21 -58 -74 -109 -103 200 MB DIV 35 38 45 32 36 28 40 13 12 -3 17 -3 59 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -4 -3 4 0 28 21 32 20 LAND (KM) 1880 1892 1861 1760 1674 1512 1435 1324 1154 944 876 942 1151 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.0 17.2 18.5 20.3 22.3 24.3 26.3 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.4 37.7 39.3 40.9 44.4 48.0 51.6 54.9 57.7 60.2 62.4 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 8 12 21 34 48 50 41 36 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 34. 36. 35. 33. 33. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/11/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/11/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)