* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 46 55 61 66 71 73 74 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 46 55 61 66 71 73 74 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 40 47 56 66 74 79 80 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 23 23 18 13 5 5 10 13 18 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 -2 2 8 7 4 1 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 47 62 56 52 60 54 30 337 335 299 282 288 291 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 130 128 127 126 124 126 129 133 136 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 130 128 127 127 124 126 128 130 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 65 62 58 58 55 57 52 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 41 43 33 32 27 43 50 55 53 45 25 200 MB DIV 78 92 82 63 37 2 -33 -22 -21 12 26 19 12 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -12 -9 -11 -6 0 2 -2 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 799 939 1069 1185 1305 1599 1848 1763 1540 1377 1273 1214 1136 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.2 15.9 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.0 25.4 26.7 28.0 29.2 32.1 35.1 38.3 41.5 44.5 47.2 50.0 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 11 12 9 10 9 8 13 17 27 49 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 30. 36. 41. 46. 48. 49. 49. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/11/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)