* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/12/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 51 55 57 56 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 51 55 57 56 57 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 49 52 52 50 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 7 6 12 14 26 25 33 26 27 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 3 1 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 86 102 84 52 349 1 316 307 304 318 317 327 312 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 123 125 128 133 138 142 142 146 149 153 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 123 125 129 134 138 140 136 138 138 140 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 58 53 48 44 37 37 42 43 46 49 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 90 91 85 82 54 13 -13 -45 -70 -88 -103 -76 200 MB DIV 19 32 32 37 45 22 15 4 9 -8 14 20 17 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -4 0 -3 4 8 5 17 -1 10 -1 LAND (KM) 1883 1786 1702 1620 1546 1439 1340 1137 870 731 749 864 1048 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.1 18.5 19.9 21.5 23.2 24.9 26.7 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.8 40.3 42.1 43.9 47.7 51.4 55.0 58.1 61.0 63.7 66.2 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 17 18 19 19 18 18 16 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 10 17 21 33 48 51 48 46 37 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. 34. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/12/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/12/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/12/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)