* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/12/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 39 46 54 61 70 76 82 89 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 39 46 54 61 70 76 82 89 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 46 57 70 82 92 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 22 19 19 10 7 8 3 7 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 1 3 8 4 3 4 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 64 63 56 60 60 41 46 348 5 317 305 327 271 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 130 128 128 129 127 129 134 136 139 142 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 132 129 129 131 128 131 136 139 141 145 153 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 64 63 61 59 54 54 51 49 48 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 13 13 13 15 16 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 44 40 40 36 48 50 55 63 69 66 70 200 MB DIV 83 84 57 22 25 -31 -26 -26 -5 6 22 14 40 700-850 TADV -13 -10 -9 -10 -8 0 1 -8 -4 -5 -9 -3 1 LAND (KM) 967 1094 1221 1363 1508 1830 1761 1485 1272 1081 950 795 577 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 17 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 10 9 10 11 17 22 38 49 62 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 21. 29. 36. 45. 52. 57. 64. 68. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/12/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/12/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)