* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/12/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 42 49 56 60 62 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 42 49 56 60 62 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 37 47 59 68 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 33 31 29 26 20 13 9 10 11 21 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -9 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 2 0 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 79 80 83 84 87 92 75 50 319 302 283 266 264 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 132 133 135 134 131 134 134 135 135 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 131 132 133 136 134 132 134 134 135 136 139 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 64 63 61 65 62 63 57 56 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 32 27 20 31 41 44 53 57 57 35 17 200 MB DIV 76 37 7 0 -20 -50 -9 -27 3 18 17 22 17 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 2 3 3 0 -1 -5 -4 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1246 1366 1488 1615 1743 1658 1612 1437 1294 1192 1139 1109 934 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.7 14.8 16.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.6 30.8 32.0 33.2 35.7 38.2 40.9 43.4 46.2 49.2 52.3 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 15 17 18 16 23 21 31 41 58 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 17. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/12/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/12/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)