* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 46 48 50 52 55 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 46 48 50 52 55 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 14 17 16 23 20 24 19 18 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 1 3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 221 205 207 221 258 261 294 304 332 355 342 302 244 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 135 135 138 141 146 149 150 144 130 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 131 132 130 131 131 133 134 133 126 114 105 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 9 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 9 700-500 MB RH 44 40 39 38 40 44 48 50 54 59 59 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 38 32 18 7 2 -39 -68 -104 -125 -141 -86 -73 200 MB DIV 5 10 5 13 8 4 -1 2 -1 6 25 47 15 700-850 TADV 20 7 13 20 19 13 14 5 12 -2 12 -2 5 LAND (KM) 1625 1603 1589 1515 1436 1199 1014 949 953 1067 1250 1178 1002 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.6 26.0 27.7 29.6 32.2 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 47.0 48.6 50.3 51.9 54.8 57.4 59.5 61.5 63.0 64.0 63.8 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 17 16 14 13 11 11 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 32 33 31 35 38 34 33 29 22 11 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 30. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/12/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)