* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 41 49 55 60 63 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 41 49 55 60 63 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 39 50 61 70 75 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 32 27 28 22 14 14 8 12 13 18 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -9 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 0 2 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 81 83 84 89 93 89 59 37 329 320 295 274 275 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 136 136 133 133 135 135 134 134 137 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 134 136 136 134 133 135 134 133 134 135 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 64 60 61 61 63 61 58 57 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 34 28 22 22 40 41 46 48 47 37 18 3 200 MB DIV 36 9 -1 -23 -39 -27 -15 -2 -2 23 17 25 20 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 5 3 -2 -1 -8 -4 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1439 1554 1669 1717 1659 1597 1513 1338 1224 1141 1094 1101 937 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.5 14.5 15.8 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.7 34.8 37.2 39.6 42.0 44.3 46.7 49.5 52.2 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 17 18 20 18 19 23 25 33 43 55 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/12/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)