* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 08/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 53 55 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 53 55 56 54 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 46 51 53 54 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 8 11 13 7 12 12 15 15 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -5 -1 -2 1 0 1 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 359 348 305 302 310 328 335 344 348 11 50 90 136 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 141 143 144 145 144 139 130 124 117 114 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 125 127 126 125 122 118 110 105 99 97 94 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 52 52 54 58 57 56 59 60 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -11 -25 -38 -27 5 -32 -52 -96 -119 -160 -153 -115 200 MB DIV -1 3 -5 -7 13 8 16 -7 1 -1 6 16 21 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 3 5 6 7 4 15 7 12 2 2 LAND (KM) 1341 1287 1240 1208 1185 1197 1248 1349 1460 1340 1264 1231 1226 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.4 27.4 28.4 29.6 31.0 32.4 33.7 34.8 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.6 56.5 57.4 58.2 59.4 60.2 60.6 60.4 59.5 58.1 56.2 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 31 36 33 28 33 22 11 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 31. 29. 28. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 08/12/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)