* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 08/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 44 39 34 28 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 44 39 34 28 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 28 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 30 30 33 39 41 43 41 46 41 38 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 0 -3 -5 -6 -1 -3 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 231 225 240 249 241 248 253 269 280 298 320 347 16 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.1 24.8 23.6 22.8 24.1 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 126 121 117 106 98 93 100 97 100 102 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 110 104 101 92 85 81 85 83 83 84 85 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -54.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -56.1 -56.5 -55.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 53 50 45 40 40 37 38 38 40 42 43 35 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -4 21 25 19 0 -29 -30 -17 -17 -18 -35 -52 200 MB DIV 55 41 23 -9 13 2 -4 -4 -14 -29 -51 -57 -33 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -11 -12 -12 -9 1 8 0 -4 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 826 812 789 741 730 712 630 703 904 1147 1350 1477 1531 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.4 40.0 41.1 41.8 42.1 41.7 40.9 40.0 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 65.1 63.3 61.7 60.0 56.1 51.8 47.5 43.7 40.5 38.3 37.3 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 17 17 15 13 11 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 8. 0. -8. -15. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 19. 14. 9. 3. -4. -11. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 08/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 08/12/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)