* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/12/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 47 52 56 60 63 68 73 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 47 52 56 60 63 68 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 36 38 40 43 46 51 58 65 72 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 17 11 17 14 17 10 13 5 19 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 4 2 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 211 211 226 252 249 258 295 294 334 320 242 185 194 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 133 136 138 145 150 151 145 130 126 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 130 128 129 130 135 137 135 129 114 109 103 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 7 700-500 MB RH 41 42 40 39 38 41 45 48 50 55 56 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 26 13 3 0 -28 -55 -86 -104 -131 -76 -34 -21 200 MB DIV 14 4 10 7 12 -5 8 -7 25 18 80 41 37 700-850 TADV 13 14 21 25 11 13 6 8 1 8 10 -8 1 LAND (KM) 1626 1618 1527 1464 1328 1112 977 949 1037 1237 1074 913 709 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 29 29 30 38 36 33 30 21 11 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 38. 43. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/12/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/12/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/12/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)