* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 08/12/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 58 63 67 71 71 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 58 63 67 71 71 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 59 66 73 75 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 9 6 9 7 14 7 13 14 37 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 344 311 313 317 325 278 290 293 317 266 232 224 225 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.5 27.2 25.5 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 144 147 148 149 149 148 141 132 130 113 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 129 131 131 130 128 127 121 115 114 100 78 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 9 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 49 52 53 56 55 60 61 61 57 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -20 -28 -19 0 1 -30 -73 -76 -85 -8 6 1 200 MB DIV 4 -8 3 22 27 2 11 -9 48 28 90 41 28 700-850 TADV -1 1 2 3 3 6 5 1 4 6 6 2 -26 LAND (KM) 1266 1203 1149 1109 1081 1045 1080 1160 1151 1022 842 559 435 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.8 28.8 30.3 32.6 35.8 39.4 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.6 57.6 58.7 59.7 61.4 62.9 64.1 65.2 65.4 64.3 61.6 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 10 14 19 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 40 34 28 34 29 27 15 11 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 33. 38. 42. 46. 46. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 08/12/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 08/12/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 08/12/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)