* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062011 08/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 46 46 41 38 28 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 43 46 46 41 38 28 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 39 40 39 38 34 30 24 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 17 22 25 30 42 42 54 56 72 77 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 2 -5 -4 1 2 7 0 -9 N/A SHEAR DIR 232 245 252 239 250 275 279 283 306 322 330 325 N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.2 24.4 23.2 22.0 19.9 17.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 118 113 110 106 101 103 95 89 81 75 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 102 98 95 92 88 88 83 78 73 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -55.2 -55.1 -55.8 -56.2 -57.1 -56.3 -55.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 43 41 41 36 34 34 37 43 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 3 3 2 6 6 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 17 6 -5 -20 -43 -44 -40 -40 -79 -95 -92 N/A 200 MB DIV 12 15 14 35 11 0 -16 -21 -33 -51 -48 -34 N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -7 2 -3 0 -5 -9 -11 -14 -7 0 29 N/A LAND (KM) 866 859 883 854 852 774 832 991 1199 1422 1648 1336 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.8 37.4 38.2 39.0 39.9 40.7 41.6 42.7 44.0 45.6 47.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.3 60.6 58.8 57.0 55.1 51.0 46.9 42.9 39.0 35.2 31.4 27.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 17 17 16 16 15 16 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 19 CX,CY: 17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 2. -6. -13. -21. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. 11. 8. -2. -15. -29. -34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062011 SIX 08/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062011 SIX 08/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062011 SIX 08/13/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)