* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 53 59 64 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 53 59 64 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 36 41 48 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 9 12 15 13 17 8 10 3 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 1 3 0 0 0 -2 4 2 10 SHEAR DIR 207 229 255 245 252 289 310 318 328 300 61 160 220 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.6 27.7 26.8 26.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 138 139 144 150 151 146 134 125 120 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 134 133 133 136 136 128 116 111 109 95 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 6 4 700-500 MB RH 41 40 38 41 41 44 48 51 56 57 59 59 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 4 4 2 -33 -67 -107 -117 -101 -75 -38 6 200 MB DIV 8 1 4 9 14 -11 3 -1 40 49 75 51 42 700-850 TADV 14 18 19 11 16 11 3 12 -1 11 3 -9 -19 LAND (KM) 1596 1505 1416 1259 1115 964 962 1051 1207 1151 1061 886 666 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 16 14 13 13 11 12 19 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 32 31 40 37 31 27 24 9 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 34. 39. 44. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/13/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)