* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 56 60 62 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 43 51 56 60 62 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 33 39 46 55 62 67 70 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 12 10 7 5 3 8 10 21 20 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 1 1 2 5 4 1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 68 76 71 65 45 324 335 307 278 287 286 291 295 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 130 130 132 136 136 138 141 147 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 136 134 134 135 137 137 139 143 148 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 60 60 58 55 55 51 52 51 55 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 20 29 40 39 42 55 59 53 43 35 16 200 MB DIV -3 -24 -37 -37 -18 -19 -6 14 16 24 9 15 12 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 3 4 5 2 2 -2 0 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1671 1750 1703 1682 1635 1376 1185 1026 926 814 591 527 346 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 17 17 16 15 15 14 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 15 14 19 29 42 49 64 72 78 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 26. 31. 35. 37. 42. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/13/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)