* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 08/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 53 59 64 65 62 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 53 59 64 65 62 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 47 53 59 64 62 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 9 6 9 8 12 7 13 24 39 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 2 9 SHEAR DIR 319 294 324 338 293 311 313 312 306 230 241 234 237 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.0 26.5 25.2 20.7 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 148 148 147 143 135 126 122 110 86 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 129 129 128 126 122 116 110 107 97 79 69 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 9 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 51 53 58 58 58 59 65 66 64 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -42 -34 -15 -1 -29 -49 -70 -72 -47 -22 -15 16 200 MB DIV -4 -2 18 24 26 3 16 24 55 50 52 11 58 700-850 TADV -1 1 2 3 7 7 3 8 0 1 1 1 -6 LAND (KM) 1208 1170 1141 1138 1142 1166 1264 1265 1119 845 634 434 278 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.3 29.5 31.0 33.4 36.5 39.8 42.9 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.1 59.0 59.8 60.6 61.9 62.8 63.4 63.2 61.6 58.7 55.0 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 10 14 18 20 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 32 28 31 29 21 6 9 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 6. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 28. 34. 39. 40. 37. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 08/13/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)