* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 35 44 52 58 61 67 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 35 44 52 58 61 67 69 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 38 41 44 48 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 11 11 13 13 14 8 6 10 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 -4 -7 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 66 93 60 59 65 51 45 50 36 32 10 43 62 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 146 146 142 137 134 135 134 131 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.3 -54.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 65 62 59 61 61 62 59 59 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 12 14 14 13 16 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -1 1 6 5 2 3 0 4 10 16 21 24 200 MB DIV 33 34 45 53 76 65 43 49 37 25 45 29 58 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1625 1721 1811 1894 1980 2119 2247 2377 2487 2372 2221 2092 1955 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.9 124.9 126.9 128.8 130.7 132.4 133.9 135.5 136.8 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 24 26 24 18 21 16 17 18 16 13 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 10. 14. 15. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 27. 33. 36. 42. 44. 48. 49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##