* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062011 08/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 42 44 44 42 39 33 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 42 44 44 42 39 33 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 40 39 39 38 37 33 28 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 28 28 25 28 32 29 38 38 48 59 60 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 0 -3 -3 -1 4 3 5 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 251 240 239 253 260 272 287 281 292 313 348 338 N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.0 25.1 24.6 24.3 23.4 21.6 19.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 112 108 105 100 108 104 101 96 87 80 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 98 94 91 87 93 89 87 83 77 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.2 -55.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 41 38 40 36 35 38 41 37 35 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 6 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 4 -2 -17 -34 -54 -49 -24 -17 -46 -66 -87 N/A 200 MB DIV 0 18 15 8 9 -10 8 -17 -10 -57 -60 -33 N/A 700-850 TADV -7 0 -6 3 -1 0 -6 0 -4 -11 -24 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 779 807 791 805 722 772 1007 1239 1472 1684 1615 1317 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.1 38.8 39.5 40.2 40.6 40.4 40.7 41.4 42.4 44.0 45.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 59.1 57.0 54.9 52.8 48.5 44.1 40.1 36.2 32.7 29.1 25.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 14 15 15 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 58/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. 0. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. -2. -10. -21. -31. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062011 SIX 08/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062011 SIX 08/13/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062011 SIX 08/13/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)