* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 39 44 48 54 59 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 39 44 48 54 59 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 26 29 33 38 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 12 14 19 19 14 15 13 7 3 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 4 4 6 SHEAR DIR 237 276 273 269 273 297 307 338 311 321 151 197 206 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.2 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 137 138 145 149 151 141 126 120 112 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 131 130 130 133 135 134 124 112 105 98 90 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 8 5 2 700-500 MB RH 38 39 37 40 43 44 48 51 52 58 60 56 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 5 7 4 -14 -50 -86 -112 -152 -113 -72 -50 -28 200 MB DIV -8 -2 11 0 4 3 1 13 11 73 55 63 7 700-850 TADV 13 17 10 12 11 4 8 7 19 15 -1 -30 -25 LAND (KM) 1525 1451 1323 1205 1103 1007 1016 1128 1332 1153 902 787 688 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.7 24.4 26.1 28.0 30.2 33.2 36.3 38.8 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.7 53.4 54.8 56.2 58.5 60.5 62.1 63.1 62.9 60.6 57.1 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 17 15 15 13 12 12 13 16 18 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 31 33 38 37 31 30 12 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 29. 34. 41. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/13/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)