* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 36 43 51 56 60 60 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 36 43 51 56 60 60 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 46 53 59 61 61 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 11 11 4 2 3 4 4 13 22 30 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 2 5 3 5 4 0 -1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 89 90 99 115 8 352 281 313 285 283 274 280 289 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 129 129 133 134 136 137 139 147 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 130 129 130 135 135 136 137 138 144 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 67 62 60 60 62 58 60 56 56 49 51 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 23 31 33 29 39 42 46 33 11 -3 -27 200 MB DIV -30 -45 -44 -18 -14 4 15 35 21 7 4 7 14 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 5 4 0 2 0 2 1 7 6 7 LAND (KM) 1757 1723 1700 1682 1590 1368 1199 1080 1017 937 813 721 474 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 35.2 36.5 37.9 39.3 42.3 45.2 48.1 51.1 53.8 56.4 58.9 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 15 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 14 20 28 36 47 54 71 68 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 26. 31. 35. 35. 38. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/13/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)